Technology Shocks

1 Frameworks to capture technology shocks: an attempt to integrate current streams of thought.- 1.1 Introduction.- 1.1.1 Introducing technology shocks.- 1.1.2 Characterizing technology shocks at the firm level.- 1.2 Frameworks.- 1.2.1 Innovation of product properties.- 1.2.2 Change in product’s value proposition.- 1.2.3 Effects on organizations’ competence.- 1.2.4 Differentiation between consumer and investment goods.- 1.2.5 An optimized framework to identify technology shocks.- 1.3 Patterns of technology shocks and the product life cycle.- 1.3.1 Literature focusing on technological change.- 1.3.2 The theory of the product life cycle (PLC).- 1.3.3 The various phases of the PLC.- 1.3.4 Conclusion - do technology shocks cause a PLC-like pattern?.- 1.4 Implications for research.- 2 Success factors for surviving technology shocks.- 2.1 Introduction.- 2.2 Main theoretical and methodological streams.- 2.3 ‘When Darwin strikes’: success factors for overcoming technology shocks.- 2.3.1 Company attributes prior to the shock.- 2.3.2 Strategic decisions in reaction to the shock.- 2.3.3 Operational decisions in reaction to the shock.- 2.3.4 Factors with no significant impact on success.- 2.4 Implications for research.- 3 Research gaps and methodology.- 3.1 Introduction.- 3.2 Need for additional research.- 3.2.1 Additional success factors for future empirical analysis.- 3.2.2 Designs of existing research and their limitations.- 3.2.3 Investigating complex industries.- 3.3 Goals and approach of the research process.- 3.4 The pre-tests.- 3.5 Making the questionnaire available.- 3.6 ‘Top management still not online’.- 3.7 The necessity of networking.- 3.8 ‘Going beyond the fruit fly’ implications for research.- 4 The machine tool industry and the effects of technological change.- 4.1 Introduction.- 4.2 The machine tool industry after World War II.- 4.3 The availability of information about the industries’ recent history.- 4.4 Location of invention, role of national research programs, and no advantage for first movers.- 4.4.1 The first years of a new technology.- 4.4.2 Machine tool manufacturers get involved - what happened to the pioneers.- 4.4.3 National programs for developing a new technology.- 4.5 Patterns and extent of technological change: between shock and evolution.- 4.5.1 Three waves of technological innovation.- 4.5.2 Innovation of product architecture.- 4.5.3 The technology’s disruptive effect on companies’ capabilities and the loss of competitive advantage.- 4.5.4 Change in the product’s value proposition and order of magnitude improvement in value for users.- 4.5.5 Technological change in the machine tool industry and the technology shock matrix.- 4.6 The Japanese success story.- 4.7 External factors.- 4.8 The next wave — trends and future technological changes.- 4.9 Implications for an analysis of technology shocks in the machine tool industry.- 5 Descriptive analysis.- 5.1 Company data and technology shock waves.- 5.1.1 The original set of variables.- 5.1.2 Companies involved and coverage.- 5.1.3 Differentiating success and failure.- 5.1.4 The ‘Zombie’ phenomenon - or why counting market exits does not always work.- 5.1.5 Defining the shock waves and expanding on the characteristics of the 4-stage wave pattern.- 5.1.6 Number of firms under observation.- 5.1.7 The importance of the second shock wave.- 5.2 The manager’s mind - the perceived importance of success factors for the survival of technology shocks.- 5.2.1 Importance ratings of success factors.- 5.2.2 Ranking by importance of companies’ attributes.- 5.2.3 Ranking by importance of strategic decisions.- 5.2.4 Ranking by importance of operational decisions.- 5.2.5 Overall ranking with suggestion of special focus.- 5.3 Secondary findings from the analysis of importance ratings.- 5.3.1 Differences between winners and losers.- 5.3.2 Specific characteristics of the German firms — the largest national group of companies in the sample.- 5.3.3 Differences depending on the size of companies.- 5.4 Conclusion on manager ratings.- 5.5 Managing technology shocks - determinants that distinguish winners from losers.- 5.5.1 Methods to compare ‘winners’ and ‘losers’.- 5.5.2 Strength of technology shock and effects of product types.- 5.5.3 Significant differences in attributes of ‘winners’ and ‘losers’.- 5.5.4 Significant differences in strategic decisions of ‘winners’ and ‘losers’.- 5.5.5 Significant differences in operative decisions of ‘winners’ and ‘losers’.- 5.5.6 ‘Early’ and ‘late’ losers.- 5.6 Summary of the descriptive analysis.- 6 Multivariate analysis.- 6.1 Introduction of scales.- 6.1.1 Correlations and scales of company attributes.- 6.1.2 Correlations and scales of strategic decisions.- 6.1.3 Correlations and scales of operative decisions.- 6.2 Differences of the scales’ means between winners and losers.- 6.3 ‘Early’ and ‘late’ losers.- 6.4 Determining causal relations through multivariate analysis.- 6.5 Displaying survival.- 6.6 Analyzing the determinants of survival.- 6.6.1 Multivariate analysis of the variables that represent company attributes.- 6.6.2 Multivariate analysis of the variables that represent strategic decisions.- 6.6.3 Multivariate analysis of the variables that represent operational decisions.- 6.7 A combined model of managing technology shocks.- 6.8 Summary of the multivariate results.- 7 Conclusion and outlook.- Appendix of chapter 1.- Appendix of chapter 3.- Appendix of chapter 4.- Appendix of chapter 5.- Appendix of chapter 6.- List of figures.- List of tables.- Abbreviations.- References.