Climate Change – Identification and Projections

<p>CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 1</p>
<p>1.1. Context 1</p>
<p>1.2. Identification 3</p>
<p>1.3. Expectations and results 5</p>
<p>1.4. Contents of the work 6</p>
<p>CHAPTER 2. CLIMATIC DATA 11</p>
<p>2.1. Sources 11</p>
<p>2.2. Global temperature 12</p>
<p>2.2.1. Modern temperatures 12</p>
<p>2.2.2. Pre–industrial temperature 13</p>
<p>2.2.3. Paleotemperatures 14</p>
<p>2.3. Concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere 17</p>
<p>2.4. Solar activity 18</p>
<p>2.5. Volcanic activity 26</p>
<p>CHAPTER 3. THE WAR OF THE GRAPHS 29</p>
<p>3.1. History 29</p>
<p>3.2. Inconsistent controversies 35</p>
<p>3.3. Usable data 38</p>
<p>CHAPTER 4. FORMULATING AN ENERGY BALANCE MODEL 41</p>
<p>4.1. State models and transmittance 41</p>
<p>4.2. Structure of an energy balance model 44</p>
<p>4.3. Specificity of EBMs 47</p>
<p>4.4. Dynamic parametrization 49</p>
<p>CHAPTER 5. PRESUMED PARAMETERS 55</p>
<p>5.1. Terminology 55</p>
<p>5.2. Climate sensitivity Sclim 57</p>
<p>5.3. Coefficient of radiative forcing ?&Ntilde;1 58</p>
<p>5.4. The climate feedback coefficient ?&Uuml;G 58</p>
<p>5.5. Sensitivity to irradiance S2 59</p>
<p>5.6. Sensitivity to volcanic activity S3 61</p>
<p>5.7. Climate or anthropogenic sensitivity 61</p>
<p>5.8. Review of uncertainties 63</p>
<p>CHAPTER 6. IDENTIFICATION METHOD 67</p>
<p>6.1. The current state of affairs 67</p>
<p>6.2. Output error method 69</p>
<p>6.3. Estimating the error variance 70</p>
<p>6.4. Hypothesis test and confidence regions 72</p>
<p>6.5. Conditions of application 73</p>
<p>CHAPTER 7. PARTIAL RESULTS 75</p>
<p>7.1. A selection of data 75</p>
<p>7.2. Free identification 77</p>
<p>7.3. Forced identifications 81</p>
<p>7.4. Statistical analysis 86</p>
<p>CHAPTER 8. OVERALL RESULTS 91</p>
<p>8.1. Preliminary comments 91</p>
<p>8.2. Regions and intervals of confidence 93</p>
<p>8.3. Hypothesis test 96</p>
<p>8.4. Comments 97</p>
<p>CHAPTER 9. HISTORIC MINUSCULE SIMULATIONS 99</p>
<p>9.1. Overview of IPCC simulations 99</p>
<p>9.2. Comparative simulations 100</p>
<p>9.3. Representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 102</p>
<p>9.4. Comparative radiative forcing 105</p>
<p>CHAPTER 10. LONG–TERM CLIMATE PROJECTIONS 107</p>
<p>10.1. IPCC scenarios and projections 107</p>
<p>10.2. EBM compatible scenarios 109</p>
<p>10.3. Long–term projections 110</p>
<p>10.4. A disaster scenario 113</p>
<p>CHAPTER 11. SHORT–TERM PREDICTIONS 115</p>
<p>11.1. Decadal time scale predictions by GCM 115</p>
<p>11.2. The climate s natural variability 117</p>
<p>11.3. State estimate and prediction 120</p>
<p>11.4. Decadal time scale predictions by EBM 123</p>
<p>11.5. A posteriori predictions 124</p>
<p>CHAPTER 12. CONCLUSIONS 129</p>
<p>12.1. On the identification 129</p>
<p>12.2. Climate sensitivity 130</p>
<p>12.3. Solar activity 131</p>
<p>12.4. Predictive capacity 132</p>
<p>12.5. The climate change in question 133</p>
<p>12.6. Prospects 133</p>
<p>BIBLIOGRAPHY 135</p>
<p>INDEX 141</p>